The Fragile Lifeline: How the Black Sea Agreement Temporarily Averted Global Famine Amidst the Russo-Ukrainian War

By Harish Krishnan

In February 2022, Ukraine was invaded by Russia, plunging Europe into the throes of war once more. This war has yielded catastrophic results for the Ukrainian people, with their land being occupied by a foreign invader and with millions of Ukrainians fleeing their homes. However, due to the interconnected nature of the global economy and supply chains, the war has far-reaching effects. Ukraine and Russia, both major world breadbaskets (regions with high food production), will be able to ship their critical grain supplies to many countries in Asia and Africa,  potentially causing a worldwide famine.

Ukraine is a major exporter of foodstuffs such as wheat, barley, and maize. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it prevented Ukraine from exporting to the rest of the world by blockading its ports. As a result of this, food prices throughout the world were set to record highs due to this critical source of grain being cut off. This grain was mostly exported to countries in Africa and Asia, and as a result, grain prices in that region have risen by over 30 percent. In addition to this Russia,  the world’s largest fertilizer exporter, has announced restrictions on fertilizer exports till May 2023 due to the war. This was following an 80 percent increase in fertilizer prices in 2021. As a result of this, fertilizer prices has risen by 30 percent in 2022. This price increase will largely target developing countries in Africa and Asia with many of these countries struggling to grow food for themselves. Many of these countries have only been able to grow crops due to fertilizer imports and if they disappear it may result in severe consequences for these countries.

In addition to risking famine, higher food prices have started wars and revolutions in the Middle East before. The Arab Spring, a series of revolutions throughout the Middle East and North Africa, was caused by higher grain prices. In Tunisia one of the countries that experienced a revolution, the revolution was directly linked to high food prices. 

In fact, around early 2011 right before when the revolution happened in Tunisia the graph clearly shows the massive jump in international food prices. The high food prices were one of the key triggers that caused the revolution to oust Tunisia’s dictator. Revolutions like this occurred all over the Middle East from places such as Egypt to Syria. The Russo-Ukrainian war risks causing another wave of these revolutions by limiting the supply of grain and other foodstuffs in the world thus once more causing a 

However while the situation appears dire, a resolution has been reached. The Black Sea agreement between Russia and Ukraine was brokered by Turkey. The deal allows Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea, a route previously blocked by Russia, potentially preventing the dire issues facing many nations in the Middle East or Africa. The deal, negotiated in 2022, provided a 120-day period where both sides would facilitate the export of foodstuffs and food fertilizers through the Black Sea. The deal covered 3 major Ukrainian ports: Odesa, Chernomorsk, and Yuzhny. While the deal provides a sense of hope against this impending crisis, it is a fragile agreement and either side could pull out of it depending on the war. One example of this was in November 2022, when the deal was to be extended. The Ukrainians believed the deal was to last for an extra 120 days while the Russians believed it should last for 60. Another example was in October 2022, when the Russians accused the Ukrainians of attacking the Russian fleet using the disguise of the trade corridor set up by the deal. The deal for now is staving off the current crisis but who knows for how long?